Sapulpa, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

480
FXUS64 KTSA 052336
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
636 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

   - Daily rain and storm chances will exist through the next
     week. Uncertainty in time and location of boundaries and
     upper level waves remains, but overall it appears the highest
     rain chances will be Sunday into early next week.

   - Organized severe weather is not expected. However, storms
     will be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall and
     gusty winds.

   - Afternoon heat indices will creep up into the 95-100F range
     toward the latter half of next week, with a front possible by
     the following weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Deep moisture remains in place as moist southerly flow continues
through much of the atmosphere. PWAT values will remain above 2"
today, implying that any storms could become capable of heavy
rainfall. However, there is simply very little in place to
capitalize on the moisture, with no obvious boundaries and only
subtle indications of an upper level wave to the west. So far
we`ve only seen a few scattered showers. In general, this is
expected to continue into the afternoon, with an isolated
thunderstorm or two also possible. More locations will likely
remain dry than get wet.

High temperatures today will remain consistent with the last few
days, generally in the mid to upper 80s with a light southerly wind.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

The synoptic pattern will remain rather stagnant for the next
week with an upper level high centered over Arizona, low pressure
off the coast of Texas, with a weak train of alternating shortwave
troughs and ridges passing by to the north. In general this will
keep the area under low amplitude diffuse troughing, with just
enough forcing to occasionally capitalize in the moisture and
instability in place.

SuNday will be mostly similar to today, with periods of clouds and
sun, mild temperatures, and a few scattered showers or
thunderstorms. Overall, a quiet day. Subtle shifts in the pattern
Sunday into early next week will increase storm chances. One change
is that the area of low pressure off of Texas will shift west and
strengthen. It should be just close enough to increase upper level
diffluence over the area. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough from the
west will approach the area with a weak boundary stalling just to
the north. These factors will likely be sufficient to increase
storm activity across the area. The threat of severe weather will
be low, instead, areas of heavy rainfall are more likely. High
temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s.

By the middle of next week the trough will shift southeast of the
area with shortwave ridging building in from the west. Temperatures
will rise into the low to mid 90s with afternoon heat indices likely
rising into the low 100s. Rain chances won`t go to zero, but they
will drop significantly, especially for areas further west.
However rain chances may tick back up towards next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Scattered to broken mid and high clouds are forecast for much of
the TAF period across the CWA. A few isolated showers may linger
into this evening, otherwise shower/storm chances increase again
Sunday afternoon across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Additional mid clouds are forecast to redevelop during the day
Sunday, which could start out as a brief period of MVFR ceilings.
Besides these potential MVFR ceilings Sunday morning, VFR
conditions are forecast for the TAF period. Winds through the
period start out southerly, become more variable tonight and
return out of the south southwest Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  91  73  90 /  20  20  20  30
FSM   75  93  73  92 /  20  20  10  40
MLC   72  90  71  91 /  20  20  10  30
BVO   72  90  70  89 /  10  30  20  20
FYV   72  89  70  89 /  20  30  20  40
BYV   72  89  68  89 /  20  40  30  50
MKO   73  89  71  88 /  20  20  10  40
MIO   72  89  70  88 /  20  50  30  30
F10   72  88  70  88 /  20  20  10  40
HHW   72  91  71  91 /  20  10   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...20